CHICAGO – Live and feeder cattle futures extended their impressive rally this week, with significant gains fueled by robust consumer demand and tightening cattle supplies. This continued bull run has seen cattle futures hit new contract highs, signaling a strong market for producers.
Live cattle futures saw gains of $2.00 to $2.60 on Wednesday. Specifically, the August 2025 Live Cattle contract closed at $236.300, up $2.025, while the October contract settled at $229.650, a gain of $2.550. The December contract also saw a healthy increase, closing at $230.725, up $2.575.
Feeder cattle futures experienced an even more dramatic rally, with gains ranging from $3.97 to $4.70. The August 2025 Feeder Cattle contract closed at a strong $345.025, up $3.975, while the September contract surged by $4.675 to close at $344.225.
The strength in the futures market is underpinned by a resilient cash market. While cash trade was reported to be quiet for much of the week, the Central Stockyards Fed Cattle Exchange online auction saw sales in Texas at $237 on a portion of the cattle offered. Market analysts note that cash trade has been leading the futures market, with fed cash cattle hitting new records.
Wholesale boxed beef prices are also on the rise, indicating that consumers are still willing to pay a premium for beef despite higher prices. On Wednesday, Choice boxes were up $4.92 to $374.86, and Select boxes increased by $5.42 to $351.36. The spread between Choice and Select now stands at $23.50.
Adding to the upward pressure on prices is a smaller U.S. cattle herd, which is hovering near a 75-year low after severe drought forced ranchers to reduce their herds. This is reflected in the latest cattle slaughter estimates from the USDA. The estimated weekly total of 332,000 head is down 1,000 from the previous week and a significant 28,722 head lower than the same week in 2024. This week’s slaughter is the smallest for a non-holiday week on record.
Market analysts are hesitant to predict a top to the market as long as the cash market remains strong and consumer demand holds firm. While some packers have been reducing kill rates to manage their margins in the face of high cattle prices, the fundamental supply and demand dynamics continue to favor the bulls.
